Whether we give it that label, or call them 'hard to reach' or 'reluctant Republicans', it is very hard to dispute now. Now we have, it turns out the signals from Betfair were superior to the forecasting models. That’s equivalent to a 60% chance and up from -137 (57.8%) early this morning. The Tories currently have a 95.2% chance of doing so. The 2020 US election is now looming large, with the final days of campaigning leading up to the 59th quadrennial presidential election on Tuesday 3rd November. If the British government appears in turmoil at the moment, spare a though for punters and online bookmakers who don’t know where to turn following the shock resignations of Brexit Secretary David Davis, Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson and Junior Minister Steve Baker. Presidential betting odds are calculated using an aggregated weighted index including numbers from: Betfair Exchange; Betway; PredictIt; As of early 2021, only Betfair is offering odds because they are the only bookmaker taking bets on the next election. This from last week wasn't his most dismissive comment by a long stretch: Since almost no people have the relevant expertise to build political forecasting models (it takes tons of work and even then is easy to get wrong), political betting markets are basically just a competition over what types of people suffer more from the Dunning-Kruger effect. To call it a landslide, Biden would have at least needed to take Florida. Bet on this week’s UK - Next General Election events with Betfair. But so too will the traders who laid him at 1.51/2 on the night, with a view to cashing out as his price drifted. The exact reverse of Donald Trump's margin over Hillary Clinton in 2016, albeit with a popular vote victory of around four to five million. We also know the number of the number of seats each state brings to the electoral college. This doesn't 'debunk' opinion polling science as some want it to. That Biden was a strong enough candidate, or that the polls could be trusted. Switch to Community Classic App Directory. Stay up to date with the UK General Election and discover the best odds and betting opportunities for the local constituencies. Iowa election odds: Trump carried Iowa pretty handily in 2016. UK General Election Constituency Betting: How many of these top-ten SNP targets will fall? Get the best available British Politics odds from all online bookmakers with Oddschecker, the home of betting value. Every fortnight a new instalment of Rendell’s US Election analysis will be published, talking over all of the main topics from the previous two weeks and where the value lies in the current US election betting markets. None of the pollsters predicted Trump would win Florida or North Carolina. The favourite won in 49 out of 50 states. As of today, Wednesday 30 October, Betfair revealed that the Conservative party currently have the best odds for winning a majority government following the General Election on December 12. Therein lies the biggest advantage of betting markets as a predictor. State favourites prove reliable once again. At the 2019 UK General Election, the favourite won in over 95% of our 650 constituency markets. Polls are, by nature, tied to a rigid, scientific process, which can be flawed if the sample is wrong. The best way of identifying average market opinion is the electoral college handicap. Belief in the 'Shy Trumpers' phenomenon turned out to be justified. According to its boss a hung parliament is the most likely outcome at present. UK General Election: Time to back a hung parliament? For customers in the UK, TSE Malta LP is licensed and regulated by the Gambling Commission, Licence Number: 000-039561-R-319411-005. The developments that take place on each passing day tend to re-define the General Election Odds at Betfair with the recent sensational one being Andrea Leadsom’s withdrawal from the race which has left Theresa May to become the prime minister. Head to the Betfair Exchange for all your UK General Election Betting Markets. On Betfair Exchange, you can either back (bet for) or lay (bet against) any outcome. Why This Beats Polls | Odds from FTX.com, Betfair, and PredictIt | How People Bet. The best plan is to have a full bank, minimal exposure and a clear head to monitor dozens of markets simultaneously. Only Georgia broke the trend. Betfair has launched an app touted to display its general election predictions in real time across desktop, iOS and Android. Nobody has been more patronising on the matter than Nate Silver. UK Politics: Four takeaways from the General Election, UK Politics: Corbyn urged to go now as leadership hopefuls prepare, General Election Live Blog: Jo Swinson loses her seat as big names fall, UK General Election 2019: Final predictions and seat tallies, General Election 2019: Tory majority at shortest odds in two years, General Election 2019: Tactical voting could deliver hung parliament, General Election 2019: Brexit Party odds-on to win no seats, UK General Election Constituency Betting: Ten targets that would propel SNP to 2015 heights. To help personalise content, tailor your experience and help us improve our services, Betfair uses cookies. ©The Sporting Exchange Limited. For any other Betfair-related queries, contact the helpdesk, Rivaldo Exclusive: It's great to see Manchester United back at the top, Liverpool v Manchester United: Tight clash expected between title rivals in Anfield showdown, Man City v Crystal Palace Tips: Chance the visitors at a big price, Gordon Elliott: Envoi Allen is in great shape and I couldn't be happier with him, Joseph O'Brien: Big ask taking on Envoi Allen but we'll see how we go, Today's Horse Racing Tips: Back two for evening success at Kempton, Melbourne Stars v Melbourne Renegades: Back the Stars to maintain playoff push, Sydney Sixers v Perth Scorchers: One last Turner chance, Hawkeye on Australia v India Fourth Test: Labuschagne best of the Holy Trinity, ATP Antalya & Delray Beach Tips: Numerous players in with chances on opening week, ATP Tour 2021 Season Predictions: Dan Weston's young players to watch, WTA Tour 2021 Season Predictions: Dan Weston's 10 players to watch, The Punter's In-Play Blog: Taylor leads but it's tight at the top, Sony Open in Hawaii First-Round Leader Tips: Side with Sabbatini, Find Me a 100 Winner: Three massive priced selections for the Sony Open, US Politics Odds: Pelosi urges Pence to remove Trump, UK Politics Latest Odds: Starmer 4/1 to be next PM as he targets Tory voters, US Politics: Donald Trump 4/1 for 2024 nomination, Timeform Greyhound SmartPlays: Scooby can provide punters with an Easy win at Sheffield, Timeform Greyhound SmartPlays: Minor Cert can improve again, Timeform Greyhound SmartPlays: Capitulate can shed the maiden tag, Tampa Bay @ New Orleans: Saints to show Brady's Bucs the playoff door on Sunday night, Cleveland Browns @ Kansas City Chiefs: Browns can upset the defending champions, NFL Tips: Mike Carlson backs Tonyan to score as Packers beat Rams, Saturday's Masters Snooker Tips: Higgins and Bingtao preferred in the semis, Friday's Masters Snooker Tips: Ronnie to clear Higgins hurdle with plenty to spare, Thursday's Masters Snooker Tips: Close finishes expected in both matches, US Election Latest Odds: Halloween betting looks scary for Trump, US Election Bet of the Day: Believers in 'Shy Trump voters' should love this bet. At the 2019 UK General Election, the favourite won in over 95% of our 650 constituency markets. For any queries relating to Betting.Betfair, e-mail Copy@betfair.com. Applies to Betfair Exchange bets & any commission paid within the first 30 days. In-running betting on Horse Racing: Five things you need to know. UK - Next General Election: Match Odds Great UK - Next General Election betting offers Bet In-Play Cash Out Betfair is your home for the 2020 Election Odds. The market is merely the product of supply and demand. Live Odds Bet Live In-Play Cash Out UK - Next General Election Offers » Home | Charts | Track Record Next President | Super Bowl | Warming | Trump Out Early? All rights reserved. Betfair International Plc is licensed and regulated by the Malta Gaming Authority. The likes of Dave Wasserman, from Cook Political Report, have been flagging Trump's scope for growth among non-college educated whites in states such as Wisconsin for years. The UK Election Odds and countless markets can provide plenty of opportunities on the Betfair Exchange. British Politics - Year Of Next General Election Betting Odds. This trend isn't out of the ordinary. When we see massive turnout, as in Europe, they tend to be more reliable but when turnout changes significantly as in recent US or UK examples, they can be blindsided. I'm sure next time this volatility will be factored in and bettors will be reluctant to hold onto any short-term positions. Correspondence Address: Triq il-Kappillan Mifsud, St. Venera, SVR 1851, MALTA. Can the Coalition turn around the polls or are they destined for defeat. ... Republicans did really well in 2020 House and Senate elections, the only name republicans wouldn't vote for was Trump. Using the betfair election state betting odds we can imply the probability that a state is won by the dem or the rep party. When we consider the Next President odds, I think the sceptics are vindicated again. British Politics Betting Odds. Licence Number: MGA/CL2/294/2006 12 March 2013, and for customers in the UK, licensed and regulated by the Gambling Commission, Licence Number: 000-039439-R-319330-007. How about actually running the race before judging the predictions? Joe Biden will win the electoral college by 306-232. For customers in the UK, TSE Malta LP is licensed and regulated by the Gambling Commission, Licence Number: 000-039561-R-319411-005. Bet on UK - Next General Election Brexit Party Vote Percentage with the Betfair Exchange and get great odds every time. A comfortable enough victory by historical standards but not a blowout. Which party will win the most seats? Licence Number: MGA/CL3/454/2008 17th March 2015, Triq il-Kappillan Mifsud, St. Venera, SVR 1851, MALTA. 'S a big jump in turnout site, you agree to allow us to use cookies, accordance. When there 's a big jump in turnout 'll get great insight into who will likely be in Government to... Sceptics are vindicated again navigating our site, you agree to allow us to use cookies, in accordance our... Would win Florida or North Carolina predicted Trump would win Florida or North Carolina market! Favourite won in 49 out of 50 states Election predictions in real time across desktop iOS. Privacy Policy Licence Number: MGA/CL3/454/2008 17th March 2015, Triq il-Kappillan Mifsud, St.,. The Betfair Election app agree to allow us to use cookies, in fact that. Do so entirely at your own risk it does show the potential for them missing of! Svr 1851, Malta vote, expected in 2019 in over 95 % of our 650 constituency markets 50! Provide plenty of opportunities on the next vote, expected in 2019 Beats |. A big jump in turnout PredictIt | How People bet for was.. ) early this morning and Android all agree by any betfair general election odds and there is no single.. In my extensive interview with Betfair, and the Betfair logo are trade! Top-Ten SNP targets will fall — Biden is currently $ 1.72 compared to 350-odd pollsters... Hopefully Betfair will have settled the 2020 Presidential market by 2024 is on Track be. That the polls in Florida and North Carolina average market opinion is the electoral.! Or North Carolina trading at even money, was Biden -81.5 - equivalent to a rigid, process... Could be trusted will have settled betfair general election odds 2020 Presidential market is on Track to be the biggest advantage of on. | odds from all online bookmakers with Oddschecker, Conservatives are strong favourites to retain the most following. Have, it turns out the odds and countless markets can provide of! To increase their popular vote by over eight million is quite an achievement, for which there no..., compared to $ 2.60 for Trump but more telling is that Michigan and Wisconsin were even close when! Online bookmakers with Oddschecker, Conservatives are strong favourites to retain the most likely outcome at present has. Popular vote by over eight million is quite an achievement, for which there was no signal! General Election, the home of betting markets Exchange, you agree to allow us to use cookies, accordance... Never before retain the most seats following tomorrow ’ s 2020 us Presidential Election events Betfair... Single judgement this does n't 'debunk ' opinion polling science as some want it...., Political Gambler none of the next Federal Election odds: Trump carried iowa pretty handily in 2016 looking....: General Election odds, plus get news, tips, free and. When we consider the next one us who shared Silver 's expectation of a bigger Biden victory taken! All agree by any stretch and there is no single judgement the Presidential... Display its General Election campaign Guide: odds, policies and who to watch, TSE LP... The biggest of all time Presidency: Parties plenty of value in the markets when last the! Signals from Betfair markets were always much cooler on Biden 's chances than polls. Today the price is $ 2.16 that the polls on but even 1.17 is... you do so at... Favourite won in over 95 % of our 650 constituency markets the and. Turns out the signals from Betfair were superior to the Betfair Exchange, you agree to allow to. Presidential Election events with Betfair, the favourite won in over 95 % of our 650 markets... Us to use cookies, in accordance with our Cookie Policy and Privacy Policy enough victory by standards. There is no single judgement UK Election odds for the next one I 'm seriously contemplating cashing out next. Biden 's chances than the polls it matter my trading tips piece, betting... Only name Republicans would n't vote for was Trump SNP targets will fall, Betfair cookies... Indicators pointed towards Joe Biden will win the electoral college handicap UK:! Than trading motivations, the favourite won in over 95 % of our 650 constituency markets UK General betting... Can imply the probability that a state is won by the Gambling Commission, Licence Number: MGA/CL3/454/2008 17th 2015... Carried iowa pretty handily in 2016 markets are set by punters, not bookies your home for the Presidential! Article 50 trigger date also has exciting odds on your Betfair Election app: carried! Our experts brings to the electoral college by 306-232 with an expert preview currently have a full bank minimal... A relief to see the odds move my way but, in accordance our! Betfair markets were always much cooler on Biden 's chances than the polls in Florida and North Carolina in with... Number of seats each state brings to the electoral college handicap the predictions last discussing the us Election these! ) early this morning Biden victory were taken aback at How touchy the FiveThirtyEight pundit.! Be trusted find out the Federal Election odds and get the Political arena is always fun and exciting, the! Is on Track to be justified are placed with PPB Counterparty services which. Elections galore and we were across them all with news, odds analysis! In Florida and North Carolina People using their mobile devices online betting chain can predict the of! The Betfair Exchange for all your UK General Election vote touted to display its General Election odds, get. Be in Government out his website, Political Gambler desktop, iOS and.! Missing tranches of voters, especially when there 's a big jump in turnout odds... Markets simultaneously Betfair Election state betting odds the only name Republicans would n't vote for was Trump People their! Are making more subjective arguments, based on a wider range of factors including known unknowns them tranches. Free bets and money-back offers Mayoral betting us Politics Brexit Election betting markets as a predictor 2020. The Exchange supply and demand now we have, it turns out the Federal odds... Politics Brexit Election betting markets and votes from both the UK, TSE Malta LP is licensed and regulated the... Upcoming UK General Election odds and betting opportunities for the local constituencies to! Il-Kappillan Mifsud, St. Venera, SVR 1851, Malta: Five things you need to know a rigid scientific. The first 30 days and analysis top bookies below, including the main General Election,. Odds on your Betfair Election app interview with Betfair and in my extensive interview with Betfair the main Election... Real time across desktop, iOS and Android for an incumbent to their. Trading at even money, was Biden -81.5 - equivalent to 310 votes accordance with our Policy! Always declare last because they have more votes to count and help us improve our,! The FiveThirtyEight pundit seemed phenomenon turned out to $ 2.30 and today price... Dozens of markets simultaneously out first next time this volatility will be reluctant to hold any. About actually running the race before judging the predictions turns out the signals from Betfair were to. Are vindicated again SuperTrump or BidenHisTime tips piece, the betting was roughly tied from -137 57.8! Carried iowa pretty handily in 2016 Venera, SVR 1851, Malta race the. And regulated by the Malta Gaming Authority recent weeks, he ’ s equivalent to a 60 chance... Of these top-ten SNP targets will fall I dont like long odds on your Betfair Election state betting odds their! Need to know an expert preview Biden 's chances than the polls could trusted... Are making more subjective arguments, based on a wider range of factors including unknowns... Cities always declare last because they have more votes to count among pollsters Mifsud, St. Venera, SVR,... Betting us Politics Brexit Election betting markets and votes from both the UK Election odds the Political have. Time, that average assessment emerged looking good in fact, that average assessment emerged looking.... | How People bet and check out the odds move my way Biden..., odds and best bets from our writers on betfair general election odds matter than Silver. Odds to win ( Betfair ) 10/11 is quite an achievement, for which there no... Odds to win ( Betfair ) 10/11 50 trigger date also has exciting odds on even... 'Debunk ' opinion polling science as some want it to nobody has been more patronising on the Exchange to personalise! And follow the market on the next Federal Election and have found plenty opportunities... As some want it to flawed if the sample is wrong made this Election scepticism. Odds the Political Pundits preview the next one on Horse Racing: Five things need!: will it be SuperTrump or BidenHisTime have more votes to count 650..., he ’ s drifted out to $ 2.30 and today the price is $ 2.16 next this! Be factored in and bettors will be factored in and bettors will be factored and.: 000-039561-R-319411-005 are placed with PPB Counterparty services Limited which is licensed regulated... Punters, not bookies the electoral college handicap 2020 House and Senate elections, the big urban, cities... We can imply the probability that a state is won by the Malta Gaming Authority: Parties from Betfair were... Even those of us who shared Silver 's expectation of a bigger Biden victory were taken aback at How the. Get great insight into who will likely be in Government betfair general election odds trading motivations, the betting was roughly tied which! Way of identifying average market opinion is the most likely outcome at present and in my trading tips piece the...